The following article was first published in my paid newsletter, The Hot Sheet.
During the pandemic, the traditional book publishing industry has enjoyed increased sales and profits due to increased demand for books across every category—and especially in children’s categories. In fact, 2020 was a historic year for children’s nonfiction print book sales due to the need for educational materials as well as entertainment at home. Overall, juvenile nonfiction ended 2020 with unit sales up by 23% versus the prior year.
So how about 2021?
In an October presentation to the American Book Producers Association, NPD BookScan analyst Brenna Connor offered an update on the children’s market. Her data was pulled not just from the standard NPD print book sales data (which tracks US book sales through thousands of retail outlets) but also from PubTrack Digital (publisher-reported ebook sales from the top 450 publishers), BookScan license reporting (more on this later), and PubTrack Digital Audio (a new source that tracks the top audio publishers in the US).
While print sales were lower in 2021 than they were in 2020, they remained up over 2019.
Here’s where the numbers sat as of Oct. 2, 2021, versus the previous year.
Juvenile nonfiction is the only category to decline, mainly because it’s being compared to the historic sales of 2020. If compared to 2019, last year’s print sales for the category were up around 20%.
Graphic novels and manga in particular have been driving this growth, partly a result of some series getting adapted for the screen and becoming popular through streaming services. Other popular categories include humorous stories (e.g., Jeff Kinney’s Wimpy Kid series), social themes (driven by poet Amanda Gorman), animals (e.g., I Love You to the Moon and Back and The Little Blue Truck series), and holidays. Series are claiming a greater share of book sales over time, with a 5% annual compound growth rate since 2012. In 2021, a series accounted for two out of every three kids’ books sold.
Middle-grade books (ages nine through 12) are seeing the highest absolute gains in sales. In 2021, middle-grade books sales were up by 5 million units. Examples of popular authors in this category include Dav Pilkey (Dog Man series) and, again, Jeff Kinney (Wimpy Kid). However, books for kids ages 4 to 8 enjoyed the highest sales volume overall, with 88 million units sold in 2021 versus 64 million units of middle-grade books.
Of the 10 YA bestsellers in 2021, two were new titles, one was an older frontlist title, one was a required school read, and the rest (six) were BookTok favorites. Connor says this is the first time NPD has seen a meaningful sales effect through organic social media. While 2020 sales were driven by blockbusters (like the Twilight series or Hunger Games), 2021 saw older titles surface again through BookTok word of mouth. It wasn’t just one sales spike, but long-term sales growth that sustained over the year. Adam Silvera’s They Both Die at the End, released in 2018, has seen 80% of its sales volume happen in 2021.
Source: NPD BookScanKids’ licenses fall into two categories: literary licenses and pure licenses. A literary license describes something that started as a book, while a pure license originates outside of the book world, e.g., Disney’s Frozen. Of the top 20 kids’ licenses in 2020 in the US, seven were pure licenses and the rest were literary licenses. The top literary license is Dr. Seuss; the top pure license is Paw Patrol.
Connor pointed out several growth areas that NPD expects to do well in 2022. They include (1) self-esteem and self-reliance, or books that help children develop skills that allow them to overcome challenges on their own; (2) climate change and conservation, or books that focus on the environment; and (3) friendship and inclusion, or books with a focus on kindness and the value of being a good friend to others.
Demand for all types of books is expected to continue in 2022. While sales may look less favorable compared to 2020, the forecast for kids’ nonfiction remains strong even as people return to work and to school, given concerns that kids have lost ground educationally.
Jane Friedman has spent nearly 25 years working in the book publishing industry, with a focus on author education and trend reporting. She is the editor of The Hot Sheet, the essential publishing industry newsletter for authors, and was named Publishing Commentator of the Year by Digital Book World in 2023. Her latest book is The Business of Being a Writer (University of Chicago Press), which received a starred review from Library Journal. In addition to serving on grant panels for the National Endowment for the Arts and the Creative Work Fund, she works with organizations such as The Authors Guild to bring transparency to the business of publishing.
My friend, a fellow writer, was getting her driver’s license renewed. The person processing her application asked her what line of work she was in.
“I write children’s books,” she said.
“Oh, there’s a ton of money in that,” the DPS officer said.
My friend’s eyebrows shot up so high they practically hit the ceiling.
If you are a writer for children, experienced authors will often give you this advice:
Don’t do it for the money.
If you are new to children’s writing, or just starting to explore it, this may come as a surprise to you.
What about Jeff Kinney, you ask, the creator of the Diary of a Wimpy Kid series? What about Rick Riordon and his Percy Jackson books? And how about Suzanne Collins, of Hunger Games fame?
What about J. K. Rowling, who has a net worth of $1 billion dollars??
Exactly what kind of numbers are we talking about, then?
Walk into the children’s section of a bookstore, or a library—even if you lived to 150 years old, there is no way you could read all the books. Every year, enough children’s books to fill a football field are published.
Surely most of these authors are at least making a decent living from their books?
Actually, no.
Let’s look at some numbers.
The Society of Children’s Book Writers and Illustrators (SCBWI) describes a typical compensation package for an author of a children’s book. This example pertains largely to picture books, which on average run about 32 pages.
Keep in mind that for picture books, the money paid by the publisher is split between the author and the illustrator (unless they are one and the same).
For this example, we’ll use a situation where the author receives an advance from the publisher. (Some publishers, especially the smaller ones, do not give advances).
Typical advance: $6,000 – $12,000
Author/Illustrator split: $2,700/$3,300 – $5,400/$6,600
After the advance, authors can then earn royalties, which are often set at around 3.5% – 6% of the book’s sale price. (This figure reflects the fact that royalties, which are typically 7% – 10%, are also split with the illustrator). No royalties are earned until enough books have sold to cover the advance.
This is what is referred to as “earning out” your advance.
Generally, most picture books sell around 5,000 to 10,000 copies in hardcover form, and few are made into paperback. Most will also go out of print within about two years.
Easy readers have similar compensation packages, but royalties are not split on novels. So in this case, an author could receive an advance of $5,000 to $8,000 with 7% to 10% royalties.
Let’s use an example of a typical 32-page picture book. The book is assigned an advance of $8,000, which is split 45%/55% with the illustrator, leaving the author with $3,600.
Let’s say the book is listed at a retail price of $17.99, and the author is given royalties of 4%.
Book price ($17.00) x royalty (4%) = $0.72.
Yep, you saw that right. She will earn less than a dollar a book.
And if the author has an agent, part of that money (about 15%) goes to the agent, leaving the author with $0.61 per book.
About how much you’ll earn per book (Photo by Jeff Weese from Pexels)Which means more than 11,000 books have to be sold before the author can even begin earning royalties.
Which means she probably won’t.
Literary agent Jennfer Laughren provided some ballpark figures for other types of children’s books in a blog post she wrote in 2015. Here are her estimates of advances for different levels of children’s books:
These are numbers she came up with from her own experience with her author clients, so they were not scientifically compiled. But Ms. Laughren has been in the children’s book business for awhile and is a total pro, so you can be assured these are solid numbers.
As you can see, these numbers are pretty discouraging if you are hoping your children’s writing is going to be your ticket to quitting your day job and sipping margaritas at the beach instead.
And yet thousands of books are published each year. Thousands more are written and never even published. Someone is writing all these books.
Are they all just chasing a pipe dream?
“Write because you love writing,” is a common refrain among seasoned writers. “If you are writing for the money, you are doing it for the wrong reason.”
The numbers don’t lie. The truth is, writing for children typically doesn’t provide enough income for authors to sustain a comfortable, or really even a bare-bones, living.
But if you do keep at it, and focus on improving your craft and writing stories that children want to read, and their parents want them to read, and eventually land a book deal, I’m guessing every single published author will tell you it’s worth it.
Getting your book out into the world and touching children’s lives in some way, whether it makes them laugh, or think, or connect with your story or characters in some way, really is priceless.
While it is extremely difficult to achieve enough success through book sales alone to become a full-time children’s book author, it doesn’t mean you have to give up on your dream entirely.
At least I don’t think so.
There are those who successfully support themselves as children’s book authors. But that doesn’t mean their only source of income is through their books.
There are other ways to earn income related to your work as an author.
Here are some examples:
Because you want to make a living as a children’s book author, the first step is selling your books.
As a first step, let’s explore some of the best ways to market your books and increase your sales.
Comments
Please Join Us to post.
0